The Indianapolis Colts head north to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers as both teams will be looking to avoid an 0-2 start after close losses in their season openers.
There’s a strong chance that the Packers will be without franchise quarterback Jordan Love in this contest, and that will play a massive role in my Colts vs. Packers predictions.
Find out why I’m backing the road team in my NFL picks for Sunday, September 15.
Colts vs Packers prediction
My best betColts -3 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Indianapolis Colts played an extremely competitive back-and-forth game with the Houston Texans last week but ultimately fell by a score of 29-27.
Anthony Richardson was inconsistent on offense but showed signs of greatness with a few big throws that led to touchdowns. He hit Alec Pierce with a 60-yard bomb while under pressure in the first quarter and then hit Ashton Dulin for a 54-yard score in the fourth.
The biggest issue for the Colts was on defense. C.J. Stroud threw for 234 yards and two touchdowns on 24 of 32 passing and Joe Mixon ran for 159 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries. The lone bright spot for the Colts’ stop unit was that they were able to get four sacks and 10 QB hits. That is where they will be able to attack the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers allowed two sacks and five QB hits last week in their 34-29 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil. However, that was with Jordan Love at quarterback. Now they will likely be forced to play with Malik Willis behind center.
Willis — once thought to be the next franchise quarterback in Tennessee — has struggled mightily in his limited opportunities to start.
Willis started three games for the Titans in 2022 and was sacked 10 times despite only having 49 combined pass attempts in those three games. He failed to reach 100 passing yards in any of those games and has yet to throw a single touchdown pass in the NFL.
While I do believe that the Packers will be able to establish a strong run game with Willis and Josh Jacobs, that will not be enough given their defensive issues they showed in Week 1. The Colts will put up enough points to force Willis into throwing situations, and that is a recipe for disaster given his history in this league.
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Colts vs Packers same-game parlay
Colts -2.5Josh Jacobs Over 89.5 rushing yardsJonathan Taylor anytime TD
+1,200 at BetMGM
A good way to create better odds on same-game parlays is to pair together plays that do not necessarily correlate with each other. In this game, I am confident that the Colts will win and cover, but I also think Jacobs could still run wild.
He had 84 yards last week on only 16 carries, so I will add him to get 90+ here with likely much more volume.
The Packers allowed three touchdowns to Saquon Barkley last week. Now they face Jonathan Taylor, who scored last week and has at least one touchdown in 11 of his last 13 games in which he started and played at least 50% of the offensive snaps.
His anytime touchdown will be the final leg of this same-game parlay for huge odds.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Colts vs Packers odds
Colts vs Packers live odds
Colts vs Packers opening odds
- Spread: Indianapolis -3 | Green Bay +3
- Moneyline: Indianapolis -135 | Green Bay +115
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 | Under 43.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Colts vs Packers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread was as high as Green Bay -5 before the start of the season but has moved as high as Indianapolis -3.5 since the injury to Love.
- The Colts have covered in three of the last four matchups between these two teams.
- The total opened at 47.5 before the Love injury and moved to 43.5 after the injury. It’s down to 40.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- The Over has hit in each of the last four matchups between these two teams.
